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President Trump is Impeached by House

  • DAR Wong
  • 23 December 2019

CURRENCY MARKET OBSERVATIONS – 23 December 2019

 

President Trump is Impeached by House

Fundamental Outlook   The U.S. President Trump is the third President in American history to be impeached by the House. The next hearing will be tried by the Senate and decide if Trump is to be removed. Currently, the Senate is held in majority by the Republicans and needs at least 67 percent vote to overrule the removal of President.

Meanwhile, the agreement of phase one in trade deal between U.S. and China has sent the Dow markets to high record.  Chinese President Xi expresses optimism and eager to sign the deal as soon as possible. China’s government confirms they will purchase USD40 – USD50 billion worth of agriculture products on annual basis for consumption.

Market traders reckon the rally in U.S. and Chinese stock indexes could rally into Q1 2020 as the trade deal is sealed on good relationship between the 2 countries. Dow market closed at 28,455 on Friday after reaching historical high 28,608.

Bank of England kept the monetary policy unchanged at 0.75 percent on last Thursday meeting. Asset purchase program will stay at GBP435 billion. The cabinet led by Prime Minister Johnson will execute BREXIT procedure before 31 January. However, Pound fell back to 1.3000 last week as no-deal BREXIT is expected from Johnson’s policy.      

Last week, WTI Crude prices broke above USD60 /barrel at 3-month high record. Public trading of Saudi Aramco Company and the persistent cut in OPEC+ production through March 2020 has finally pushed the WTI prices into a new bullish sentiment.  

Technical Forecast   USD/JPY traded in narrow range last week and below 109.70 resistance. This week, we forecast the trend might correct and test 108.20 level. Overall prices will be contained from 108.29 – 109.70 region as Dollar trends to soften. However, beware of penetration above 109.70 resistance that needs to be accompanied with risk control.

EUR/USD has been resilient at 1.1200 level as market fizzled out last week. This week, we project the trend will be prone to weak demand but buying interest will emerge at 1.1000 – 1.1050 region. Falling beneath 1.100 level needs to exercise risk control since Euro is anticipated to bounce towards weekend.

 

GBP/USD has traded in bears last week. Market trend is still prone to fall in coming week with resistance building up at 1.3200 level. We reckon the first support will emerge at 1.2950 level for a while. However, beware of driving beneath this level and test 1.2750 in case of additional BREXIT fear.

 

Gold prices traded in very narrow range from USD1470 – USD1480 /oz last week. This week, we expect the trend to unwind as Dollar may recover slightly. Market movement is projected to move from USD1460 – USD1485 /oz amid down move. Risk control is advised in case of piercing above the aforementioned resistance.

 

WTI Crude prices rose to 3-month high above USD70 /barrel as demand begins to increase in oil market. This week, we predict the trend will be rangebound from USD59 – USD62 /barrel but prone to test bottom again. Generally, market traders are observant in tracking OPEC+ members for initiating the oil price trend in Q1 2020.

 

Silver prices traded in slight bullish trend last week. Market is prone to stay firm this week despite Gold may drop. Initial tight range is forecast to move from USD17.00 – USD17.60 /oz while threading sideways. Beware of driving beneath USD17.00 /oz in case of unfavorable sentiment that will reach USD16.40 /oz bottom.

 

Crude Palm Oil (FCPO) Futures on Bursa Derivatives traded in rangebound amid buyback towards last weekend. March20 contract closed at RM2914 /MT on Friday. This week, we foresee the trend is prone to climb higher towards year-end closing amid thin trading. Range is expected to be contained from RM2850 – RM3000 /MT with strong buying interest. Market tends to ascend higher in January due to market optimism.

 

DAR Wong has 30 years of trading and hedging experiences in global financial markets. The opinion is solely at his own.  He can be reached at dar@pwforex.com


About the Author
DAR Wong (Singapore)
An international speaker with 27 years of trading experience in the global financial markets, DAR is a Market Master and author of “Living Daylight in Stock Market: Monetizing Your Profits in 8 Days”.

DAR Wong is an active market trader, registered fund manager, educator and author.He began his career in 1989 as an institutional Futures trader with Bank of America. DAR Wong specializes in trading global derivatives and financial markets. He has 26 years of experience accumulated through tenure with Bankers Trust, Barclays Bank, Citigroup (Smith Barney Shearson Inc) and as an independent trader.

DAR is the author of “8 Ways to Invest in China’s Emerging Market” and contributes frequently to regional media, including financial TV/Radio programmes, newspapers and magazines for professional traders and active investors.

He is a popular and sought after international speaker who has presented to financial professionals and investors throughout the region including Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Hong Kong, China, Cambodia, Myanmar, Philippines, Sri Lanka, India, South Korea, Laos, Vietnam, United Kingdom and Middle East (UAE).

DAR is registered with NASD (now known as FINRA) series 3 and 5 as approved by National Futures Association (NFA) of USA and holds a current portfolio as Fund Strategist and Advisor with Dektos Investment registered with Monetary Authority of Singapore.

DAR is profiled as “One of the most successful traders – Market Masters” in Brent Penfold’s bestselling book “The Universal Principles of Successful Trading “. In January 2015, DAR was honored with Outstanding Award for International Financial Market Analysis granted by ASEAN Commerce (Thailand).

DAR is the author of "8 Waysto Invest in China's Emerging Market" and contributes frequently to regional media, including financial TV/Radio programmes, newspapers and magazines for professional tradersand active investors.1

He is a popular and sought after international speaker who has presented to financialprofessionals and inverstors throughout the region including Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Hong Kong, China,Cambodia, Myanmar, Philippines, Sri Lanka, India, South Korea, Laos, Vietnam, United Kingdom and Middle East(UAE).2


Year
2003 - Set up ASPRI to provide hedging advisory for corporate clients and training for financial professionals
2009 - Released first book “8 Ways to Invest in China’s Emerging Market”
2010 - Profiled as “one of the most successful traders – Market Masters” in Brent Penfold’s bestselling book “The Universal Principles of Successful Trading” along with Larry Williams, Andrea Unger, Michael Cook, and Daryl Guppy etc
2011 - Received “Spirit of Enterprise”awarded by Singapore Management University in Singapore
2012 - Honored with Individual Diamond Career (Thailand) awardedby Royal Privy Council of Kingdom of Thailand
2013 - Appointed Vice Chairman of ASEAN-China Commerce Association and led a delegationtothe annual China-Asean Expo in Guangxi Province, China
2014 - Fund Manager cum Director in Dektos Investment Corporation registered with Monetary Authority of Singapore
2015 - Released new book “Living Daylight in Stock Market - Monetizing Your Profits in 8 Days” in January
2015 - Honored with Outstanding Award in International Financial Market Analysis awarded by ASEAN Commerce (Thailand)
2016 - Honored with Medal of Integrity by Royal Councilin Palace of Palembng, Indonesia

References

1.TV programs on ChannelNewsAsia (Singapore);Radio on 95.8 Capital (Singapore); Newspapers such as The Borneo Post (Malaysia), 资汇报 (Malaysia); Regional financial magazines such as The Analyst (India), 东盟商界(ASEAN, China), 资本杂志 (Malaysia).

2.Spoke at events for CME Group, Euronext LIFFE, Tokyo Commodity Exchange, Singapore Exchange, Korea Exchange, Bursa Malaysia, Thailand Futures Exchange, Jakarta Futures Exchange, Indonesia Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, Tokyo Commodity Exchange, Interactive Brokers, Xinhu Futures, Hangzhou Money Fair, China (Shenzhen) International Finance Expo, China (Guangzhou) International Finance Expo, Euromoney, CIMB, Maybank, RHB, UOB Bank, Asia Trader & Investor Convention, Global Rubber Conference, International Rubber Conference, Malaysia Rubber Board, International Rubber Research and Development Board,Malaysia Ministry of Agriculture, Rubber Industry Smallholders Development Authority, Vietnam Rubber Association, Cambodian Rubber Association, Bureau of Agriculture Research Philippines, Myanmar Rubber Planters & Producers Association etc.