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American Payroll Slows Down in Growth

  • DAR Wong
  • 13 January 2020

MARKET OBSERVATIONS – 13 Jan 2020

 

American Payroll Slows Down in Growth

Fundamental Outlook   The U.S. President Trump warns Iraqi on slapping sanction after the Iraqi Parliament decided to defend the sovereign right by expelling U.S. troops. The act comes after U.S. drone attacked and “assassinated” Iran’s military leader General Soleimani in Baghdad.  

Last Wednesday, Iran shot more than a dozen of missiles at U.S. military bases in Iraq but U.S. media reported no casualties. President Trump plays down on the strike and claims the intentional miss by Iranian forces. Japanese media reported 20 casualties have been found on the sabotage sites.

Oil prices rose after the U.S. –Iran tension escalated following the death of General Soleimani. However, market prices fell towards weekend to USD60 /barrel region as demand waned. Iran goes through national mourning and vows to seek vengeance with U.S. Government. Meanwhile, China encourages U.S. to seek dialogue with Iran instead of using forces in resolving the dispute.

Dow Jones benchmark made new record high on last Thursday while Gold and Crude prices sank. On Friday, American payroll added 145,000 jobs in December and below forecast. Unemployment rate remained steady at 3.5 percent. Dow markets protruded above 29,000 and fell on Friday as profit-taking emerged before weekend.

 

Technical Forecast   USD/JPY rose last week after exhibited strong support at 108.00 level. This week, market is seeing immediate resistance at 109.70 level and depends on the ongoing strength of Dollar to seek higher ground. Breaking above the 109.70 resistance will test 110.70 region, otherwise the trend might correct at 108.50 area.

 

EUR/USD traded in downtrend as Dollar rose last week. Technically we foresee the market will be supported at 1.1070 in coming week. However, the topside potential is limited at 1.1070 level as the trend will thread in narrow movement. Swing patterns are likely to occur and traders are advised to control risk in case the prices extend beyond the consolidated range.

 

GBP/USD has been moving within the range from 1.2900 – 1.3200 as we predicted. Traders are grasping the opportunity to sell from high side whenever market pulls up. This week, we reckon the market sentiment will remain unchanged and prone to fall as we pace towards end January for BREXIT realization.

 

Gold prices protruded above USD1600 /oz on last Wednesday and fizzled out. Market is likely to lose steam as fund might rush back to stock indexes. This week, we project the range to be USD1530 – USD1580 /oz but likely in a downward retracement. Theoretically, the yellow metal is becoming directly inverse to Dow benchmark for the movement of fund.

 

WTI Crude prices plunged from USD65 /barrel top on middle last week to USD60 /barrel as fund rushed back into Dow market. Dollar recovery is another factor that has added pressure on commodity prices. This week, we foresee the range will be sideways from USD58 – USD61 /barrel amid weak trend. In overall, market is subject to bearish trend once it submerges below USD62 /barrel.

 

Silver prices whipsaw last week by piercing above USD18.50 /oz on Wednesday but dived below USD18.00 /oz unexpectedly on following day. This week, the market will be contained from USD17.70 – USD18.50 /oz in uncertain swinging patterns. Traders are advised to take control of positions in case of erratic price movements.

 

Crude Palm Oil (FCPO) Futures on Bursa Derivatives traded sideways amid profit-taking activity last week. Trend is rather inactive as traders just started off the New Year. However, buying interest might kick-in again after the rollover period in January. March20 contract closed at RM3136 /MT on Friday. This week, we project the trend will continue to thread from RM3020 - RM3160 /MT range but piercing above the resistance will probably aim for RM3200 /MT target.

 

DAR Wong has 30 years of trading and hedging experiences in global financial markets. The opinion is solely at his own.  He can be reached at dar@pwforex.com


About the Author
DAR Wong (Singapore)
An international speaker with 27 years of trading experience in the global financial markets, DAR is a Market Master and author of “Living Daylight in Stock Market: Monetizing Your Profits in 8 Days”.

DAR Wong is an active market trader, registered fund manager, educator and author.He began his career in 1989 as an institutional Futures trader with Bank of America. DAR Wong specializes in trading global derivatives and financial markets. He has 26 years of experience accumulated through tenure with Bankers Trust, Barclays Bank, Citigroup (Smith Barney Shearson Inc) and as an independent trader.

DAR is the author of “8 Ways to Invest in China’s Emerging Market” and contributes frequently to regional media, including financial TV/Radio programmes, newspapers and magazines for professional traders and active investors.

He is a popular and sought after international speaker who has presented to financial professionals and investors throughout the region including Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Hong Kong, China, Cambodia, Myanmar, Philippines, Sri Lanka, India, South Korea, Laos, Vietnam, United Kingdom and Middle East (UAE).

DAR is registered with NASD (now known as FINRA) series 3 and 5 as approved by National Futures Association (NFA) of USA and holds a current portfolio as Fund Strategist and Advisor with Dektos Investment registered with Monetary Authority of Singapore.

DAR is profiled as “One of the most successful traders – Market Masters” in Brent Penfold’s bestselling book “The Universal Principles of Successful Trading “. In January 2015, DAR was honored with Outstanding Award for International Financial Market Analysis granted by ASEAN Commerce (Thailand).

DAR is the author of "8 Waysto Invest in China's Emerging Market" and contributes frequently to regional media, including financial TV/Radio programmes, newspapers and magazines for professional tradersand active investors.1

He is a popular and sought after international speaker who has presented to financialprofessionals and inverstors throughout the region including Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Hong Kong, China,Cambodia, Myanmar, Philippines, Sri Lanka, India, South Korea, Laos, Vietnam, United Kingdom and Middle East(UAE).2


Year
2003 - Set up ASPRI to provide hedging advisory for corporate clients and training for financial professionals
2009 - Released first book “8 Ways to Invest in China’s Emerging Market”
2010 - Profiled as “one of the most successful traders – Market Masters” in Brent Penfold’s bestselling book “The Universal Principles of Successful Trading” along with Larry Williams, Andrea Unger, Michael Cook, and Daryl Guppy etc
2011 - Received “Spirit of Enterprise”awarded by Singapore Management University in Singapore
2012 - Honored with Individual Diamond Career (Thailand) awardedby Royal Privy Council of Kingdom of Thailand
2013 - Appointed Vice Chairman of ASEAN-China Commerce Association and led a delegationtothe annual China-Asean Expo in Guangxi Province, China
2014 - Fund Manager cum Director in Dektos Investment Corporation registered with Monetary Authority of Singapore
2015 - Released new book “Living Daylight in Stock Market - Monetizing Your Profits in 8 Days” in January
2015 - Honored with Outstanding Award in International Financial Market Analysis awarded by ASEAN Commerce (Thailand)
2016 - Honored with Medal of Integrity by Royal Councilin Palace of Palembng, Indonesia

References

1.TV programs on ChannelNewsAsia (Singapore);Radio on 95.8 Capital (Singapore); Newspapers such as The Borneo Post (Malaysia), 资汇报 (Malaysia); Regional financial magazines such as The Analyst (India), 东盟商界(ASEAN, China), 资本杂志 (Malaysia).

2.Spoke at events for CME Group, Euronext LIFFE, Tokyo Commodity Exchange, Singapore Exchange, Korea Exchange, Bursa Malaysia, Thailand Futures Exchange, Jakarta Futures Exchange, Indonesia Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, Tokyo Commodity Exchange, Interactive Brokers, Xinhu Futures, Hangzhou Money Fair, China (Shenzhen) International Finance Expo, China (Guangzhou) International Finance Expo, Euromoney, CIMB, Maybank, RHB, UOB Bank, Asia Trader & Investor Convention, Global Rubber Conference, International Rubber Conference, Malaysia Rubber Board, International Rubber Research and Development Board,Malaysia Ministry of Agriculture, Rubber Industry Smallholders Development Authority, Vietnam Rubber Association, Cambodian Rubber Association, Bureau of Agriculture Research Philippines, Myanmar Rubber Planters & Producers Association etc.