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President Trump Declares National Emergency

  • DAR Wong
  • 16 March 2020

MARKET OBSERVATIONS – 16 Mar 2020

 

President Trump Declares National Emergency

Fundamental Outlook   Last week,the U.S. Dow benchmark plunged almost 5000 points and bounced 1985 points on Friday from 3-year low at 21,161 level. The whipsaw has caused nationwide panic in U.S. market after the coronavirus sweeps through European continent.

On Friday, President Trump declared national emergency and freed up to USD50 billion to aid liquidity resources in fighting the pandemic spread. Shortly over past weeks, the Federal Reserve has increased the balance sheet to almost USDD500 billion after added about USD200 billion to short-term repo fund for interbank lending.

Italy expands quarantine to its whole country except for work and emergencies. The covid-19 is spreading fast into the 60 million nation and has hampered the economy since late February.

After the discussion for production cut fell out between Saudi and Russia, Saudi has announced the daily production to increase from current 12 million barrels to 13 million barrels per day. Last week, Crude prices plummeted to USD27.30 /barrel that was last seen in early 2016.

Bank of England cuts its benchmark rate by 50 BP to 0.25 percent, in wake of combating coronavirus. This is the action that follows U.S. FED that slashed the FED fund rate by 50 BP last week.

 

Technical Forecast   USD/JPY moved like a roller-coaster last week and bounced from 3-1/2 year low at 101.19 on Friday. This market closed at 108.00 region for the weekend and we reckon the behaviour will continue to be erratic. This week, the trend will largely move from 106.00 – 110.00 range in uneven movement and traders are reminded to exercise caution.

 

EUR/USD hit 12-month high at 1.1494 and fizzled out last week. This week, we foresee the market will be unpredictable and contain initially from 1.1000 – 1.1200 region. In the event of breakout beyond the aforementioned range, risk management needs to be exercised before the market movement becomes drastic.

 

GBP/USD topped 1.3200 last week and plummeted 9000 pips throughout the 5 market days. Technically, we project the downfall trend will encounter bargain-hunting below 1.2200 level. Overall range is likely to be contained from 1.2200 – 1.2700 region in whipsaw trend for coming week.

 

Gold prices fizzled out from 8-year high at USD1703 /oz and plunged USD190 range. This week, we predict the market will swing erratically while contain from USD1500 – USD1600 /oz range. Traders are reminded to be cautious and accompany their position with proper risk management.

                                            

WTI Crude prices plunged after falling out of traders’ favor. The trend reached 4-year low at USD27.30 /barrel and closed at USD33.00 /barrel for the weekend. This week, we predict the trend will be limited beneath USD36 /barrel and the market might test below USD30 /barrel again to throw out the bottom pickers. Downside support is identified at USD26 /barrel region.

 

Silver prices fell more than USD3 range last week before settled at USD14.75 /oz on Friday. This week, we have identified the support to lay at USD14.00 – USD14.30 /oz and potential recovery will encounter sellers at USD16.00 /oz. We expect the market trend to be sideways as no clear directional trend is spotted now.

 

Crude Palm Oil (FCPO) Futures on Bursa Derivatives opened gap-down on last Monday and traded in small range. May20 Futures contract settled at RM2278 /MT on Friday. This week, active month will rollover to June20 Futures delivery and supported at RM2200 /MT level. Initial range is expected from RM2200 – RM2400 /MT but breaking beneath RM2200 /MT support may test RM2120 /MT area. 

 

DAR Wong has 30 years of trading and hedging experiences in global financial markets. The opinion is solely at his own.  He can be reached at dar@pwforex.com


About the Author
DAR Wong (Singapore)
An international speaker with 27 years of trading experience in the global financial markets, DAR is a Market Master and author of “Living Daylight in Stock Market: Monetizing Your Profits in 8 Days”.

DAR Wong is an active market trader, registered fund manager, educator and author.He began his career in 1989 as an institutional Futures trader with Bank of America. DAR Wong specializes in trading global derivatives and financial markets. He has 26 years of experience accumulated through tenure with Bankers Trust, Barclays Bank, Citigroup (Smith Barney Shearson Inc) and as an independent trader.

DAR is the author of “8 Ways to Invest in China’s Emerging Market” and contributes frequently to regional media, including financial TV/Radio programmes, newspapers and magazines for professional traders and active investors.

He is a popular and sought after international speaker who has presented to financial professionals and investors throughout the region including Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Hong Kong, China, Cambodia, Myanmar, Philippines, Sri Lanka, India, South Korea, Laos, Vietnam, United Kingdom and Middle East (UAE).

DAR is registered with NASD (now known as FINRA) series 3 and 5 as approved by National Futures Association (NFA) of USA and holds a current portfolio as Fund Strategist and Advisor with Dektos Investment registered with Monetary Authority of Singapore.

DAR is profiled as “One of the most successful traders – Market Masters” in Brent Penfold’s bestselling book “The Universal Principles of Successful Trading “. In January 2015, DAR was honored with Outstanding Award for International Financial Market Analysis granted by ASEAN Commerce (Thailand).

DAR is the author of "8 Waysto Invest in China's Emerging Market" and contributes frequently to regional media, including financial TV/Radio programmes, newspapers and magazines for professional tradersand active investors.1

He is a popular and sought after international speaker who has presented to financialprofessionals and inverstors throughout the region including Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Hong Kong, China,Cambodia, Myanmar, Philippines, Sri Lanka, India, South Korea, Laos, Vietnam, United Kingdom and Middle East(UAE).2


Year
2003 - Set up ASPRI to provide hedging advisory for corporate clients and training for financial professionals
2009 - Released first book “8 Ways to Invest in China’s Emerging Market”
2010 - Profiled as “one of the most successful traders – Market Masters” in Brent Penfold’s bestselling book “The Universal Principles of Successful Trading” along with Larry Williams, Andrea Unger, Michael Cook, and Daryl Guppy etc
2011 - Received “Spirit of Enterprise”awarded by Singapore Management University in Singapore
2012 - Honored with Individual Diamond Career (Thailand) awardedby Royal Privy Council of Kingdom of Thailand
2013 - Appointed Vice Chairman of ASEAN-China Commerce Association and led a delegationtothe annual China-Asean Expo in Guangxi Province, China
2014 - Fund Manager cum Director in Dektos Investment Corporation registered with Monetary Authority of Singapore
2015 - Released new book “Living Daylight in Stock Market - Monetizing Your Profits in 8 Days” in January
2015 - Honored with Outstanding Award in International Financial Market Analysis awarded by ASEAN Commerce (Thailand)
2016 - Honored with Medal of Integrity by Royal Councilin Palace of Palembng, Indonesia

References

1.TV programs on ChannelNewsAsia (Singapore);Radio on 95.8 Capital (Singapore); Newspapers such as The Borneo Post (Malaysia), 资汇报 (Malaysia); Regional financial magazines such as The Analyst (India), 东盟商界(ASEAN, China), 资本杂志 (Malaysia).

2.Spoke at events for CME Group, Euronext LIFFE, Tokyo Commodity Exchange, Singapore Exchange, Korea Exchange, Bursa Malaysia, Thailand Futures Exchange, Jakarta Futures Exchange, Indonesia Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, Tokyo Commodity Exchange, Interactive Brokers, Xinhu Futures, Hangzhou Money Fair, China (Shenzhen) International Finance Expo, China (Guangzhou) International Finance Expo, Euromoney, CIMB, Maybank, RHB, UOB Bank, Asia Trader & Investor Convention, Global Rubber Conference, International Rubber Conference, Malaysia Rubber Board, International Rubber Research and Development Board,Malaysia Ministry of Agriculture, Rubber Industry Smallholders Development Authority, Vietnam Rubber Association, Cambodian Rubber Association, Bureau of Agriculture Research Philippines, Myanmar Rubber Planters & Producers Association etc.