Bank of England Holds Policy Unchanged Bank of England Holds Policy Unchanged | DZHI - DZH International 
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Bank of England Holds Policy Unchanged

  • DAR Wong
  • 15 May 2017

Fundamental Outlook   The U.S. shows slightly better consumer prices and retail prices also bounces back. China reports better consumer prices and trade surplus. French election has ended with support leaning on Macron as President-elect. Bank of England holds policy unchanged.

The U.S. weekly inventories on crude storage reduced by 5.2 million barrels and beat forecast, giving a boost in oil price recovery at USD47 /barrel. Unemployment claims for the week ended 6 May was 236,000 and matched forecast. Producer prices rose 0.5 percent in April compared to minus 0.1 percent and at 10-month high.

American consumer prices rose 0.2 percent in April. Excluding food and energy, core prices up 0.1 percent and better than previous month. Another set of data on retail prices rose 0.4 percent. Core retail prices, excluding automobile sales, expanded 0.3 percent.

China’s consumer prices rose 1.2 percent in April from a year ago, and also at highest in past 3 months. Another report on producer prices expanded 6.4 percent and below median forecast. Another data on trade surplus soared higher in April with USD38.1 billion, continually better than previous month.

In France, Emmanuel Macron won the French election as President-elect over Marine Le Pen. His policy has gained the support of voters to stay in European Union and implement economic reforms to cut government spending and deficits. 

German industrial production including utilities and mines contracted 0.4 percent in March after revised 1.8 percent gains in previous month. Trade surplus expanded EUR19.6 billion and below forecast.

German GDP grew 0.6 percent in Q1 and matched forecast. Final consumer prices remain flat in April and matched forecast.

U.K. Halifax HPI contracted 0.1 percent in April and stayed sluggish. Manufacturing contracted 0.6 percent in March and worse than expectation.

Bank of England holds the key rates unchanged at 0.25 percent and bonds purchase program at GBP435 billion. Mark Carney says Britain will bear the risk of economic slowdown while facing the headwinds of BREXIT. The rising inflation will add pressure to household spending amid slowdown in GDP growth.

 

Technical Forecast   USD/JPY topped off 114.30 recently with slight correction. This week, we reckon the trend will be supported at 111.50 area in case of drawdown. Sentiment is prone to be slightly bearish while trading from 111.50 – 114.30 range. Piercing above 114.30 may initiate a new uptrend.

EUR/USD made a recovery on Friday and closed at 1.0920 level. This week, we predict a possibility to see sideways consolidation with resistance emerging at 1.1000 level. Range should be supported at 1.0830 in case of drawdown amid price swings.

GBP/USD has failed to conquer 1.3000 in recent rise and begin to make correction. Technically, the range is supported at 1.2750 area and tend to narrow down inside this range while searching for new direction. This week, we expect mixed sentiment to emerge in market and only breakaway from the target range 1.2750 – 1.3000 will see new directional momentum.

 

Disclaimer: This article is written for general information only. No liability by the writer, publisher or any third party involved in the distribution of this work.

DAR Wong is a registered fund manager in Singapore with 27 years of global trading experiences. You may reach him at dar@pwforex.com


About the Author
DAR Wong (Singapore)
An international speaker with 27 years of trading experience in the global financial markets, DAR is a Market Master and author of “Living Daylight in Stock Market: Monetizing Your Profits in 8 Days”.

DAR Wong is an active market trader, registered fund manager, educator and author.He began his career in 1989 as an institutional Futures trader with Bank of America. DAR Wong specializes in trading global derivatives and financial markets. He has 26 years of experience accumulated through tenure with Bankers Trust, Barclays Bank, Citigroup (Smith Barney Shearson Inc) and as an independent trader.

DAR is the author of “8 Ways to Invest in China’s Emerging Market” and contributes frequently to regional media, including financial TV/Radio programmes, newspapers and magazines for professional traders and active investors.

He is a popular and sought after international speaker who has presented to financial professionals and investors throughout the region including Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Hong Kong, China, Cambodia, Myanmar, Philippines, Sri Lanka, India, South Korea, Laos, Vietnam, United Kingdom and Middle East (UAE).

DAR is registered with NASD (now known as FINRA) series 3 and 5 as approved by National Futures Association (NFA) of USA and holds a current portfolio as Fund Strategist and Advisor with Dektos Investment registered with Monetary Authority of Singapore.

DAR is profiled as “One of the most successful traders – Market Masters” in Brent Penfold’s bestselling book “The Universal Principles of Successful Trading “. In January 2015, DAR was honored with Outstanding Award for International Financial Market Analysis granted by ASEAN Commerce (Thailand).

DAR is the author of "8 Waysto Invest in China's Emerging Market" and contributes frequently to regional media, including financial TV/Radio programmes, newspapers and magazines for professional tradersand active investors.1

He is a popular and sought after international speaker who has presented to financialprofessionals and inverstors throughout the region including Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Hong Kong, China,Cambodia, Myanmar, Philippines, Sri Lanka, India, South Korea, Laos, Vietnam, United Kingdom and Middle East(UAE).2


Year
2003 - Set up ASPRI to provide hedging advisory for corporate clients and training for financial professionals
2009 - Released first book “8 Ways to Invest in China’s Emerging Market”
2010 - Profiled as “one of the most successful traders – Market Masters” in Brent Penfold’s bestselling book “The Universal Principles of Successful Trading” along with Larry Williams, Andrea Unger, Michael Cook, and Daryl Guppy etc
2011 - Received “Spirit of Enterprise”awarded by Singapore Management University in Singapore
2012 - Honored with Individual Diamond Career (Thailand) awardedby Royal Privy Council of Kingdom of Thailand
2013 - Appointed Vice Chairman of ASEAN-China Commerce Association and led a delegationtothe annual China-Asean Expo in Guangxi Province, China
2014 - Fund Manager cum Director in Dektos Investment Corporation registered with Monetary Authority of Singapore
2015 - Released new book “Living Daylight in Stock Market - Monetizing Your Profits in 8 Days” in January
2015 - Honored with Outstanding Award in International Financial Market Analysis awarded by ASEAN Commerce (Thailand)
2016 - Honored with Medal of Integrity by Royal Councilin Palace of Palembng, Indonesia

References

1.TV programs on ChannelNewsAsia (Singapore);Radio on 95.8 Capital (Singapore); Newspapers such as The Borneo Post (Malaysia), 资汇报 (Malaysia); Regional financial magazines such as The Analyst (India), 东盟商界(ASEAN, China), 资本杂志 (Malaysia).

2.Spoke at events for CME Group, Euronext LIFFE, Tokyo Commodity Exchange, Singapore Exchange, Korea Exchange, Bursa Malaysia, Thailand Futures Exchange, Jakarta Futures Exchange, Indonesia Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, Tokyo Commodity Exchange, Interactive Brokers, Xinhu Futures, Hangzhou Money Fair, China (Shenzhen) International Finance Expo, China (Guangzhou) International Finance Expo, Euromoney, CIMB, Maybank, RHB, UOB Bank, Asia Trader & Investor Convention, Global Rubber Conference, International Rubber Conference, Malaysia Rubber Board, International Rubber Research and Development Board,Malaysia Ministry of Agriculture, Rubber Industry Smallholders Development Authority, Vietnam Rubber Association, Cambodian Rubber Association, Bureau of Agriculture Research Philippines, Myanmar Rubber Planters & Producers Association etc.