• Daryl Guppy
  • 18 May 2017

The Shanghai Index has aggressively tested support near 3130. Aggressive testing has included dips below 3130 and small rallies above 3130. Friday May 5 is a significant close below 3130. This suggests the support level has failed. This confirms a significant trend change with a downside target near 3070.  The rally rebounds are not the beginning of a new uptrend

This remains a significant change from the uptrend and the development of a new downtrend.  The change in trend is confirmed by the compression in the long term Guppy Multiple Moving Average group pf averages which has compressed and turned down. This shows investor selling. The value of the long term GMMA is near the previous support level near 3195. A long-term GMMA move below the 3195 level is bearish.

The short term GMMA is widely separated and this shows traders remain strong sellers in the current situation.  Traders watch for a rally close above 3160 as evidence of a sustainable rally.

The pattern of horizontal support and resistance levels identify potential support levels for the market retreat, and also to identify future resistance levels when the market develops a new uptrend.

Support levels near 3230 and 3195 and 3130 failed. Consistent falls below 3130 show weak consolidation. The close below 3130 confirms there is no consolidation development near 3130.  In the future investors watch for consistent closes at or above 3130 before they can be confident a new uptrend is in place. 

The 3130 level acted as a resistance level in August October and November 2016.  From December 2016 and February 2017, the index oscillated around this level.  This makes the close below this level very bearish.

The next lower support level is near 3070. The area near 3070 has been a significant support level in the market starting in 2015 February. The index may dip to the 3070 level and then develop a fast rally rebound. The index shows this behavior in 2016 December 26 and again 2017, January 16. Investors and traders will be alert for this behavior if the index moves below 3130.

The first evidence of sustainable consolidation will be future successful tests of 3130 as a resistance level. The consolidation around 3070 may take several weeks to develop as a firm base for a new uptrend development. Traders and investors use caution in this market condition. 





Each week we carry index analysis notes for regional markets. These are the markets in Singapore, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Thailand, Taiwan and Korea. Each market is covered once every six weeks or more often if there are significant market developments. The objective of the notes is to provide an analytical, technical background to assist readers in making better trading and investment decisions.

About the Author
Daryl Guppy (Australia)
Known as the “CNBC Chartman”, Technical Analysis Expert, International Investment Master, Daryl is an active private position trader trading equities and associated derivatives markets.

Daryl Guppy is Founder and Director of Pty Ltd. He is an active private position trader trading equities and associated derivatives markets. His most recent book is ‘The 36 Strategies of the Chinese for Financial Traders’. He is the author of several books including ‘Share Trading’, ‘Trading Tactics’, ‘Bear Trading’, ‘Chart Trading’, ‘Trading Asian Shares’, ‘Market Trading Tactics’, ‘Better Trading’, ‘Better Stock Trading’, ‘Snapshot Trading’. Several of these books are also available in Chinese & Italian, in particular, ‘Trend Trading’ has become a best seller and is available in Chinese.

Daryl developed the Guppy Multiple Moving Average indicator which is included in DZHI Advisor, Metastock, OmniTrader and other charting programs. He delivers accredited courses for the Singapore Exchange and Society of Remisiers, Singapore. He is an appointed foundation member of the Australian Government Shareholders and Investors Advisory Council. He is a regular technical analyst commentator and guest host on CNBC Asia Squawk Box.

As a technical trader, he relies mainly on chart and live market information to make trading decisions. He is the publisher of a weekly Internet newsletter Tutorials in Applied Technical Analysis, which explains technical analysis techniques and shows how they are applied to current markets. There are Australian, Asia, China and India editions of the newsletter, with each concentrating on local market solutions and trading education.

He is a regular contributor to the Sydney Futures Exchange magazine - Your Trading Edge, the US trading magazines - Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities, Active Trader, Working Money, Bridge Trader, Australia's Shares and Personal Investment magazines, Singapore's Smart Investor magazine and The Edge business weekly and Personal Money in Malaysia. He has a regular column in China's Weekly on Stocks magazine and in Shanghai Securities News. He also contributes to Poland's Professional Investor and provided sector analysis on the Singapore, Hong Kong, Malaysia and Philippines markets for i-invest handbooks.

He edited and contributed new material to the Australian editions of the US classics in the International Investors Bookshelf series, The Basics of Speculating and Day Trader's Advantage and Options: Trading Strategies That Work and Trading Rules and Mastering Technical Analysis. He prepared the introduction to the Australian editions of Breaking the Black Box (M Pring), A Technician's Guide to Day Trading (M Pring) and New Thinking in Technical Analysis (R Bensignor).

He provides web content to Sanford online brokerage, Reuters, On Line Trading systems, the Society of Remisiers, Singapore, Asiastockwatch, Telstra Big Pond Money and Quicken, Singapore. He provides charting chat room support and is co-host for the stockmeetingplace traders forum.

He trades from Darwin in the Northern Territory, of Australia, some 3,000kms from the nearest Exchange. As a result he makes full use of electronic advantages to actively trade the market and to keep in contact with other Australian and overseas traders.

He gives conference briefings for brokerage private clients. He is a featured speaker at the Australian Traders Expo, for the Sydney Futures Exchange Conference days around Australia and New Zealand, and at the Australian Technical Analysts Association annual national conferences. He was one of the speakers in the first Australian Equis Metastock seminar series. He also spoke at the On Line Trading Summit in San Diego which was webcast to traders throughout the world, and at the Technical Analysis Trading Forum in Orlando. He has spoken at trading conferences in Italy and France. He has also spoken frequently at all the major Australian Stock Exchanges, and for brokerage firms.

He was one of two foreigners (Jim Rogers and Daryl Guppy) to participate in the 2005 Chinese market outlook conference in Beijing which was broadcast throughout China. He is a keynote speaker at the 2007 China Capital Markets Investment Forum. His analysis has been presented at the 2005 Palm Oil Outlook conference sponsored by Bursa Malaysia and the BYSD Annual conference in Turkey. He is a regular speaker at the annual ASEAN Rubber Conference and at financial trading seminars in Shanghai, Beijing and Shenzhen.

He presents Certified Professional Training modules for charting and advanced technical analysis for the Singapore Stock Exchange and the Society of Remisiers, Singapore and the Hong Kong Securities Institute. He has worked with the Singapore and Australian Stock Exchanges to promote their cross trading link. He worked with Reuters Hong Kong to deliver trading and training workshops. He was the lecturer for the Casuarina Senior College charting course.

He also runs public trading workshops, and equity and futures brokerage sponsored seminars for clients such as National On Line trading, CMC Markets, Beijing SEEC in Australia, Kuala Lumpur, Singapore, Shanghai, Dalian and Paris. He provides in-house training support for fund managers, brokerage dealers and remisiers.

He presented several on-line workshop conferences for and Compuserve Investors Forum. He has appears regularly on CNBC Asia, Squawk Box as guest host technical analyst, Asian Wall Street Journal, Trading Day, Channel News Asia and ABC radio and television.

He was retained as a consultant by several Australian and Singaporean brokerages and financial portals to advise on the development of Internet based brokerage, trading and information services. He is a member of the Australian Technical Analysts Association, the Technical Analysts Society of Singapore and the International Federation of Technical Analysts.